This is a fairly old prediction but it looks as if he had written this yesterday. Is Japan undergoing latent structural revolution or just making itself fermented sushi to obscurity? Make it happen! We will know it soon. But it seems, many political systems around the world are collapsing. (or we just feel the sky is falling all the time in history. This hyper-cautious behavior might have been the source of success of our species… “paranoia”.)
Japan’s uncertain future: Key trends and scenarios.
By Staley, David J.
Publication: The Futurist
Date: Friday, March 1 2002
Four Scenarios for Japan in 2025
1 ENTREPRENEURIAL JAPAN
The government encourages individual initiative and entrepreneurship instead of state-sponsored corporatism. Corporations create an “intrapreneurial” structure that harnesses their creative and risk taking workers within the existing corporate system. Alternatively, Japan imports American-style entrepreneurship: The young risk takers inject new energy into Japan’s economy. A cult of the entrepreneur takes hold in the country, eventually producing “Japanese Bill Gateses.”
2 JAPAN AS NUMBER TWO
Japanese entrepreneurs fail to restore Japan to its past status as the world’s dominant economy. Instead, Japan settles into a second-tier economic status. Like Great Britain and the Scandinavian countries, Japan delivers relatively high levels of health, wealth, and literacy to its people, but does not become a global economic leader.
3 AN INCLUSIVE SOCIETY
As Japan’s population ages and its birthrate declines, many women enter the workforce to fill the need for both skilled and unskilled labor. Japan also addresses its labor shortage by hiring more immigrants to fill job vacancies. Over time, these foreigners are fully welcomed into Japanese society.
4 CULTURAL RETRENCHMENT AND ISOLATION
Demographic pressures induce a conservative social reaction. Japan resists gender equality and multiculturalism. Women are encourage to apply their “traditional” skills to care for an aging Japanese population. Alarmed at falling birthrates, the government adopts an official policy that encourages couples to have many children.
David J. Staley